Track record
Every projection is stored with the time it was published. After each game, the last version published before kickoff is graded against the final score and the closing betting line. Nothing is edited after the fact.
Live, since launch
Backtest, 10 seasons
Walk-forward backtest on held-out seasons: settings chosen on earlier seasons, every game projected with only information available before kickoff. The closing line is the betting market's final number, the hardest public benchmark there is.
How we measure
Mean absolute error in points between the projected and final margin (home minus away) and total, on games with a closing line.
Why the closing line
It is the betting market's last price, with every injury and lineup decision priced in: the strongest public forecast of a game.
No look-ahead
Models are tuned on early seasons and judged on later ones they never saw. Every input is something that was known before the game.