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SpreadModel

College football projections API

Projected scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities for every FBS game, from efficiency ratings, recruiting talent, incoming transfers and conference strength.

What goes into every projection

  • Results-based team ratings regressed to conference level
  • Opponent-adjusted passing and rushing efficiency
  • 247Sports recruiting talent and incoming transfers
  • Totals implied by earlier games' closing lines

Updates: Every week of the FBS season.

What the API returns

GET /v1/cfb/projections

{ "game_id", "kickoff", "home", "away",
  "proj_home_pts", "proj_away_pts",
  "proj_margin", "proj_total",
  "margin_sd", "total_sd",
  "home_win_prob",
  "model_version", "generated_at" }
Full documentation →

Backtest accuracy

College football
6,809 games · 2021–2025
within0.43pts
of the closing line's average margin error
Margin error · points, lower is better
SpreadModel12.50
Closing line12.07
Total error · points, lower is better
SpreadModel12.83
Closing line12.58

Walk-forward backtest on held-out seasons: settings chosen on earlier seasons, every game projected with only information available before kickoff. The closing line is the betting market's final number, the hardest public benchmark there is.

College football projections FAQ

Which college football games are covered?+

FBS games, including games against FCS opponents, regular season and bowls.

What drives the college model?+

Results-based team ratings regressed toward conference level, opponent-adjusted passing and rushing efficiency, recruiting talent and incoming transfers, and totals implied by earlier closing lines.

How accurate are the college projections?+

Across five held-out seasons (2021-2025, 6,809 games) the average margin error was 12.50 points, against 12.07 for the closing betting line; totals 12.83 against 12.58.

How often is it updated?+

Weekly during the season.