NBA projections API
Projected scores, spreads, totals and win probabilities for every NBA game, rebuilt each game day from the official injury report, player values and team ratings.
What goes into every projection
- Team ratings and walk-forward player plus-minus ratings
- Expected lineups from the official injury report
- Value of every player listed out (minutes x production)
- Rest, back-to-backs and three-in-four nights
- Ratings implied by earlier games' closing lines
- Opponent-adjusted pace and efficiency for totals
Updates: Every game day, after the 6 PM ET injury report.
What the API returns
GET /v1/nba/projections
{ "game_id", "kickoff", "home", "away",
"proj_home_pts", "proj_away_pts",
"proj_margin", "proj_total",
"margin_sd", "total_sd",
"home_win_prob",
"model_version", "generated_at" }Backtest accuracy
Walk-forward backtest on held-out seasons: settings chosen on earlier seasons, every game projected with only information available before kickoff. The closing line is the betting market's final number, the hardest public benchmark there is.
NBA projections FAQ
When are NBA projections published?+
Every game day after the NBA's 6 PM ET official injury report, before the 7 PM tips. Earlier versions stay available through the game history endpoint.
How are injuries handled?+
Players listed out or doubtful on the official report are removed from the expected lineup, and their value (recent minutes times per-minute production) adjusts the margin.
How accurate are the NBA projections?+
Across six held-out seasons (2020-21 to 2025-26, 7,775 games) the average margin error was 10.76 points, against 10.59 for the closing betting line; totals 14.52 against 14.25.
Does it cover the playoffs and play-in?+
Yes: regular season, play-in and playoffs.